Passengers up just 2% in first half of 2008; load factor down 1.3 points to 74.4%

AEA statistics for June confirm that demand is weakening across many markets with passenger numbers among member airlines down 0.1% compared with a 2.3% increase in May. Domestic traffic is down nearly 6% while North Atlantic traffic is down 1.1%.

Source: AEA

No room in the seats: At nearly 85% most low cost airlines would have loved to have KLM’s June load factor (and babies pay so he/she would have contributed to yield).

Demand on cross-border European routes is up just 2.2% compared with 5.3% in May. The only region to perform better in June than in May was the Middle East where traffic was up a healthy 15.1% compared with 11.9% in May.

In the first half of 2008 AEA member passenger numbers were up just 2.0% to 175.7 million passengers. Capacity (ASKs) was up 5.0% while traffic (RPKs) was up 3.2% resulting in a load factor fall of 1.3 points to 74.4%. The fact that RPK growth is outstripping passenger growth shows that average sector length is increasing which is not surprising given that domestic traffic is falling so fast.

Source: AEA

In June four of the Big 9 reported a drop in passengers with Alitalia, British Airways and Iberia being joined by Air France. As in previous months Swiss and Turkish reported the fastest growth, both managing to see passenger numbers grow by 10% or more.

Source: AEA

Load factors improved in June compared with May for all airlines except Turkish, the downside of its rapid growth. Alitalia’s load factor is still several points behind that of its major rivals. KLM is well clear of the others with a load factor that several European LCCs would be happy to be able to report.

Source: AEA

As in May among the nine medium-sized carriers five reported lower passenger numbers in June than a year ago. Also, as in May, TAP Portugal was once again the only carrier to report growth of over 20%, thanks in part to its acquisition of Portugalia last year.

Source: AEA

Turkish’s attractive ‘fly for €111′ campaign (it also has a €333 business class scheme). As in previous months Swiss and Turkish reported the fastest growth in June, managing 10% or more.

Load factors improved in June compared to May for all airlines except Austrian and TAP Portugal. Brussels Airlines failed to reach 65% in June. In the last 18 months it has only twice reported load factors of over 70%, in July and September last year.

Across all AEA member airlines (which includes the likes of Air One, bmi, Spanair and Virgin Atlantic) passenger numbers were down 0.1% in June though RPKs were up 1.6%. Unfortunately capacity (ASKs) was up 4.0% resulting in load factors being down 1.9 percentage points to 77.4%.