Ryanair’s cash offer to purchase Aer Lingus appears to indicate it would keep it as a separate entity and: “will be put on a growth trajectory which will allow Aer Lingus to provide more competition and consumer choice at a number of Europe’s primary airports where currently Aer Lingus flies but where Ryanair does not wish to operate.” anna.aero thought it might be useful to examine this claim.
Of the 66 European destinations that Aer Lingus serves from Dublin this summer, 22 of them already face direct (same airport) competition from Ryanair, while a further 14 face indirect (nearby airport) competition from Ryanair services, leaving 30 destinations on which the two airlines do not compete (but may compete with other carriers).
|Competition||City (Aer Lingus airport/Ryanair airport)|
|Direct (22)||Alicante, Barcelona, Berlin SXF, Birmingham, Bristol, Budapest, Edinburgh, Faro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, Ibiza, Krakow, Lanzarote, London LGW, Madrid, Malaga, Manchester, Nice, Palma de Mallorca, Tenerife TFS, Verona, Vilnius|
|Indirect (14)||Brussels (BRU/CRL), Frankfurt (FRA/HHN), Glasgow (GLA/PIK), London Heathrow (LHR/LGW & STN), London Southend (SEN/STN), Milan Linate (LIN/BGY), Milan Malpensa (MXP/BGY), Munich (MUC/FMM), Paris (CDG/BVA), Rome (FCO/CIA), Stockholm (ARN/NYO), Venice (VCE/TSF), Vienna (VIE/BTS), Warsaw (WAW/WMI)|
|None (30)||Aberdeen, Amsterdam, Athens, Bilbao*, Blackpool, Bologna*, Bordeaux*, Bourgas, Bournemouth*, Bucharest, Cardiff, Catania, Dubrovnik, Düsseldorf, Geneva, Hamburg, Helsinki, Izmir, Jersey, Lisbon, Lyon, Marseille*, Naples, Perpignan*, Prague, Rennes, Santiago de Compostela*, Stuttgart, Toulouse, Zurich|
|Source: OAG Max Online for w/c 6 August 2012
* Airports served by Ryanair from airports other than Dublin
Of the 30 destinations where Aer Lingus does not compete with Ryanair, either directly or indirectly, it is worth noting that there are seven airports served by Ryanair from airports other than Dublin.
Ryanair competes on 73% of Aer Lingus’ weekly seats to Europe from Dublin
Looking at the data in a slightly different way, Ryanair competes directly with Aer Lingus on 36% of its weekly European seat capacity from Dublin, and competes indirectly with Aer Lingus (to a nearby airport) on a further 37% of its weekly seat capacity from Dublin, leaving 30 routes on which the two airlines do not compete at all; just 27% of Aer Lingus’ weekly seats from Dublin this summer.
If Ryanair’s bid is successful, the following network-related questions would arise:
- On how many of the 22 routes from Dublin where the two airlines compete directly would one or other of the airlines withdraw from the route?
- If Aer Lingus is to grow, would that be primarily at Dublin, or at other Irish or European airports? (Those “primary airports where currently Aer Lingus flies but where Ryanair does not wish to operate?”)
- If growth is at Dublin, would this be by increasing capacity on existing routes, or starting new routes?
- What would happen to Aer Lingus’ operations at Belfast, Cork and Shannon?
A quick analysis of Europe’s busiest airports in 2011 reveals that neither Aer Lingus nor Ryanair serve the following major cities from Dublin (with airports with more than 5 million passengers in 2011): Istanbul, Moscow, Antalya, Copenhagen, Cologne/Bonn, St Petersburg, Ankara, Kiev, Bergen, Larnaca, Hannover and Basel.