Mexicana’s demise has minimal impact on Mexican traffic; almost 30 new international routes starting this winter
So what has been the impact on the Mexican market of the collapse of Mexicana back at the end of August? On the basis of traffic figures from DGAC in Mexico, the answer would appear to be surprisingly little. Between June and August, domestic traffic was up around 3% on a year-on-year basis. In September, traffic was down 2% and in October less than 1%. Considering that for much of 2010, Mexicana and its affiliates MexicanaClick and MexicanaLink had a combined market share of almost 30%, this relatively modest fall in demand is surprising.
Even if total demand did not change as much as expected, individual airlines have seen a significant change in their domestic market share. Aeromexico appears to be the biggest winner. From having a 30% share of the market in June (when combined with Aeromexico Connect), its combined share has risen sharply to just over 45% in both September and October.
Among the three major LCCs (Interjet, vivaaerobus and Volaris), Interjet has made the biggest market share gains, growing from 13% in June to more than 20% in both September and October. Volaris’ share has grown from around 14% in June to 17% in October, while vivaaerobus has grown only marginally from 9% in June to 10% in October.
Virgin America latest US carrier to enter Mexican market
Mexicana’s demise has been felt rather more in the international market. Although demand was still up year-on-year in both September and October, it was at a much slower rate than compared with last year. However, some of 2010’s figures are distorted by the swine flu outbreak in 2009. If this year’s data is compared with 2008, the underlying trend (demand down about 5%) remains virtually unchanged despite Mexicana’s disappearance.
Some of the international services to/from Mexico that have already started (or will soon) are summarised in the table below.
|31 Oct 10||Continental||Los Angeles (LAX)||Leon/Guanajuato (BJX)||7|
|3 Nov 10||British Airways||London Gatwick (LGW)||Cancun (CUN)||2|
|7 Nov 10||Air Canada||Vancouver (YVR)||Mexico City (MEX)||7|
|12 Nov 10||Alaska Airlines||San Diego (SAN)||Puerto Vallarta (PVR)||7|
|20 Nov 10||AeroMexico||Guadalajara (GDL)||Ontario (ONT)||7|
|1 Dec 10||AeroMexico||Monterrey (MTY)||Miami (MIA)||7|
|4 Dec 10||Alaska Airlines||San Jose (SJC)||San Jose del Cabo (SJD)||3|
|11 Dec 10||WestJet||Quebec City (QBC)||Cancun (CUN)||1|
|15 Dec 10||AeroMexico||Mexico City (MEX)||Denver (DEN)||3|
|15 Dec 10||AeroMexico||Mexico City (MEX)||Montreal (YUL)||7|
|16 Dec 10||Alaska Airlines||Sacramento (SMF)||Guadalajara (GDL)||3|
|16 Dec 10||American Airlines||Chicago O’Hare (ORD)||Mexico City (MEX)||7|
|16 Dec 10||Frontier||St Louis (STL)||Puerto Vallarta (PVR)||1|
|16 Dec 10||Virgin America||San Francisco (SFO)||San Jose del Cabo (SJD)||5|
|18 Dec 10||Frontier||Milwaukee (MKE)||Cancun (CUN)||2|
|22 Dec 10||Sun Country||Lansing (LAN)||Cancun (CUN)||4|
|23 Dec 10||Air Canada||Montreal (YUL)||Cozumel (CZM)||1|
|15 Jan 11||Frontier||Denver (DEN)||Ixtapa (ZIH)||1|
|19 Jan 11||Virgin America||Los Angeles (LAX)||Cancun (CUN)||5|
|20 Jan 11||Virgin America||San Francisco (SFO)||Cancun (CUN)||3|
|10 Feb 11||American Airlines||Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW)||Veracruz (VER)||7|
|10 Feb 11||American Airlines||Dallas/Ft Worth (DFW)||Queretaro (QRO)||7|
|19 Feb 11||Delta||Austin (AUS)||Cancun (CUN)||1|
|19 Feb 11||Delta||Columbus (CMH)||Cancun (CUN)||1|
|19 Feb 11||Delta||San Antonio (SAT)||Cancun (CUN)||1|
|19 Feb 11||Delta||Tampa (TPA)||Cancun (CUN)||1|
|3 Mar 11||Aerolineas Argentinas||Buenos Aires (EZE)||Mexico City (MEX)||4|
|Source: anna.aero new route database|
With the notable exception of British Airways’ recently started new London Gatwick to Cancun service and Aerolineas Argentinas’ service from Buenos Aires starting in March, all other international services are to/from either Canada or the US.
Virgin America will be the newest US carrier to head across the border when it starts serving Los Cabos later this month, followed by Cancun early in 2011. This marks the carrier’s second international market, having earlier this year started serving Toronto in Canada.