Biggest and fastest-growing international country pair markets in W14 revealed; Algeria, Greece and Poland see impressive domestic growth
In our latest analysis of air travel trends relating to operations this November (compared with last November), anna.aero takes a closer look at the leading domestic markets across the globe, and the leading international country pairs. Let’s start by looking at the world’s busiest domestic markets. No surprises here as the US and China lead the way, though the growth rates are quite dissimilar. The relatively mature US market has seen capacity growth of around 1.5% this November, while China’s still developing domestic market is reporting seat growth of just over 9%.
Behind these two global economic superpowers come Japan, Brazil and Indonesia. After China, Indonesia is showing the fastest growth among the top 15 domestic markets at 7.6%, driven by carriers such as Lion Air and a resurgent Garuda Indonesia. Only three of the top 15 markets are experiencing a reduction in seat capacity this November compared with a year ago. Australia (down 3.2%), Germany (down 2%) and Spain (down 1.2%) are the three exceptions. Each is home to a major carrier that has been going through some difficult times – Qantas, airberlin and Iberia respectively.
Just outside the top 15, in 16th and 17th positions, are the first two markets to report double-digit growth, namely the Philippines (+12.2%) and Thailand (+17.7%), with Colombia in 20th place growing at 15.6%. Also just outside the top 15 are the UK and French domestic markets in 18th and 19th. While UK domestic capacity is up a modest 1.1%, France’s domestic market is seeing a 3.5% reduction in seats this November. Other fast growing (but smaller) domestic markets are Algeria (+52.7%), Poland (+33.1%), Greece (+31.2%), Ethiopia (+25.8%), Myanmar (+25.7%) and Egypt (+24.9%).
US cross-border markets lead global rankings
The competition to be the leading international country pair is considerably closer and depends on the time period being analysed. For the current month the leading three country markets are US-Canada, US-Mexico and UK-Spain. However, a similar analysis for August 2014 reveals that the top two international country pairs are then UK-Spain and Germany-Spain.
Three of the top four fastest-growing country pairs among the top 15 involve China. The ranking in 11th of the China-Taiwan market is notable given that until a few years ago non-stop scheduled flights between the two nations was banned. Another market that could soon rank in the top 5 is that of India-UAE, which has seen growth of over 17% in the last year. This week alone Jet Airways has added two new daily routes from regional airports in India to Abu Dhabi.
If we factor in sector length and look at the leading country pairs in November as measured by ASKs (which equates more closely with likely airline revenues), the top eight all involve the US, with the UK market beating Japan, Germany, China, South Korea, the UAE, Mexico and Canada. UK-Spain now ranks 9th with UAE-Australia 11th and UAE-India 12th.
International markets to Middle East see impressive growth
Among the top 15 country pairs, the fastest-growing is China-South Korea with a 29.2% increase in seat capacity. However, there are many international markets where growth in seat capacity exceeds this figure. If a threshold of 50,000 monthly one-way seats is used then the following are the fastest-growing international markets.
The apparent easing of political tension in Egypt has resulted in that market seeing a bounce back to previous levels, resulting in some impressive year-on-year growth rates, notably from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Germany. Several intra-European country pairs make it into the top 15 led by Belgium-Portugal, Italy-Greece and UK-Romania. There is one intra-South American market (Brazil-Chile), and three intra-Asian markets (Japan-Indonesia, Japan-Vietnam, South Korea-Hong Kong). All of these markets have seen year-on-year seat growth of over 30%.
UAE-Taiwan is top new country market
Each year new country pairs receive non-stop air services for the first time, or see a resumption in flights after a break of sometimes several years. Excluding country pairs which may be getting services in winter that were only previously operated during the peak summer period reveals UAE-Taiwan, Netherlands-Indonesia, Kuwait-Philippines and UK-Colombia as significant new country pairs now served by non-stop service.