Top-20 unserved routes: Eastern USA to the Caribbean
This instalment of the ‘top-20 unserved’ looks at unserved routes from the Eastern USA – defined by the time zone – to the Caribbean. In the 12 months to August 2019, 25 million flew between them, up 600,000 over the prior year.
Of these 25 million, six million flew indirectly, equivalent to a PDEW of over 8,000 excluding seasonality. At almost one-quarter indirect, this is very far from the highest proportion, but it’s nonetheless important.
In the year to August 2019, the top-20 unserved routes saw 598,000 passengers, down 1% YOY.
| Top-20 unserved routes | Year to Aug. 2019 passengers (two ways) | PY passengers (two ways) |
% chg. | Year to Aug. 2019 average fare* | Est. fare/mile* (USDc) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland-San Juan | 59,800 | 55,000 | 9% | n/a+ | n/a+ |
| Pittsburgh-Montego Bay | 43,900 | 45,000 | -3% | $159 | $0.105 |
| Buffalo-San Juan** | 41,600 | 42,500 | -1% | $167 | $0.091 |
| Pittsburgh-Punta Cana | 39,000 | 44,000 | -11% | $161 | $0.097 |
| Indianapolis-San Juan | 34,000 | 34,000 | 0% | $157 | $0.083 |
| Columbus-San Juan | 32,700 | 30,900 | 6% | $210 | $0.117 |
| Pittsburgh-Aruba | 31,800 | 37,000 | -14% | $182 | $0.090 |
| Detroit-Aruba | 31,600 | 36,000 | 11% | $235 | $0.107 |
| Cleveland-Montego Bay | 30,300 | 29,900 | 1% | $178 | $0.112 |
| Columbus-Montego Bay | 27,400 | 26,200 | 5% | $140 | $0.093 |
| Jacksonville-San Juan | 25,900 | 26,400 | -2% | $185 | $0.144 |
| Indianapolis-Montego Bay | 25,000 | 29,600 | -16% | $166 | $0.107 |
| Rochester (NY)-San Juan # | 25,000 | 27,200 | -8% | $144 | $0.079 |
| Hartford-Montego Bay | 25,600 | 27,800 | -8% | $154 | $0.094 |
| New York-St Croix | 23,400 | 23,500 | 0% | $249 | $0.149 |
| Hartford-Punta Cana | 22,500 | 24,900 | -10% | $198 | $0.121 |
| Pittsburgh-Nassau | 22,400 | 21,800 | 3% | $182 | $0.169 |
| Raleigh Durham-Nassau | 21,600 | 21,200 | 2% | $161 | $0.210 |
| Indianapolis-Punta Cana | 20,700 | 21,400 | -3% | $217 | $0.120 |
| Tampa-Montego Bay | 20,400 | 23,700 | -14% | n/a+ | n/a+ |
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser. * One-way; USD; excluding taxes; excludes fuel surcharges; and across all cabins.+ As n/a, these won’t be chosen for any further analysis. ** And 36,000 to Toronto. # And 17,000 to nearby Syracuse.
The dominance of San Juan, Punta Cana and Nassau in the top-20 is borne out at country-level, below. They’re well-served from the US, from a collection of purposes of travel, but opportunities remain. This is something that Allegiant, Frontier and Spirit have been exploring in recent years, even if just once- or twice-weekly and seasonally, such as Allegiant Air’s Pittsburgh-San Juan. While Allegiant’s Caribbean presence is tiny, Spirit and Frontier have grown strongly since 2017: Spirit is up 1.3 million seats (CAGR 28%) and Frontier 600,000 (CAGR 33%). Both, of course, were from a low base.
| Eastern USA to/from… | Year to Aug. 2019 indirect passengers (two way) | Year to Aug. 2019 total passengers (two ways) | % indirect v. total passengers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dominican Republic | 984,000 | 5.1 million | 19% |
| Puerto Rico | 970,000 | 5.2 million | 19% |
| Jamaica | 829,000 | 2.8 million | 30% |
| The Bahamas | 708,000 | 2.3 million | 31% |
| Aruba | 390,000 | 1.1 million | 35% |
| US Virgin Islands | 363,000 | 715,000 | 51% |
| Cayman Islands | 242,000 | 628,000 | 39% |
| Turks and Caicos | 185,000 | 520,000 | 36% |
| St Maarten | 140,000 | 416,000 | 34% |
| St Lucia | 117,000 | 255,000 | 46% |
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser.
Cleveland – Montego Bay?
This route looks interesting. While its estimated fare/mile across these 20 is average, it has below-average sector length (although it’s still quite long at almost 1,600 miles). And although its YOY growth was only 1%, it has meaningfully grown in the five years to August 2019, shown below: 10,000 additional passengers were carried for a CAGR of 8%. A potential opportunity for Frontier? Presently, the ULCC serves Montego Bay from Philadelphia and Raleigh Durham.
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser.
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