Cancun – US sees 3.3 million indirect passengers; InterJet returns

The market between the US and Cancun saw an estimated 8.5 million passengers in the year to September 2019. This is despite the various occurrences in Cancun that reduced tourist confidence and lowered 2019 capacity to/from the Mexican destination.

Of these 8.5 million, a large ~3.3 million – almost four in ten – connected en route, especially at Atlanta (14%), Houston Intercontinental (12%) and Dallas Fort Worth (11%).

Interjet follows Frontier and Spirit in announcing more US

In September, Frontier announced twice-weekly Indianapolis – Cancun. The following month, Spirit said it’ll begin Austin, Cleveland, Nashville, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, for a total of 21 weekly.

3.3 million connect from the US to Cancun 1

InterJet is to resume Cancun – Miami on a four-weekly basis.

Yesterday, 21^st November, Mexico’s Interjet announced that it’ll resume Cancun – Miami from the 1^st April, operating four-weekly. It last operated Cancun – Miami until February 2017. Then, it used Sukhoi SuperJet SSJ100s. Now, it’ll use A320s. Come April, Interjet will be the third operator to Miami, a route understandably dominated by American Airlines. When Fort Lauderdale is included, Interjet will be the sixth airline at the metro-level.

50 US airports see a median of 43,000 people connect to Cancun

2.5 million of these 3.3 million connecting passengers flew to/from 50 US airports. Of course, these include most key airports. These 50, shown below, have a median of 43,000 connecting passengers, whether they’re already served or not. 15 are unserved, led by Portland, OR. At 2,634 miles, it’s a long way – and, crucially, it passes multiple hubs. It’s also a smaller market than Seattle (served daily), although that’s before stimulation. Clearly, a number, such as Spokane, clearly won’t be served non-stop, but are included for completeness.

The table doesn’t look at fare per mile or YOY traffic growth rate or any connecting opportunities. It’s purely a P2P traffic snapshot. Interestingly, 74% of passengers to these 50 connect en route, a very high percentage showing that they are likely underserved by non-stops. All but one of Frontier and Spirit’s coming routes fall within the top half of the table.

74% of passengers connect en route to these 50 US airports

Cancun to/from…	Est. connecting passengers	% connecting to total	Comments
Los Angeles LAX	132,148	25	Southwest ending
Boston	131,610	58
Las Vegas	94,687	83
Seattle	89,675	65
Minneapolis	82,202	35
Portland, OR	78,151	100	A long way and a smaller total market than Seattle
Kansas City	77,242	74
Detroit	70,094	35
Indianapolis	69,122	83	Frontier coming; twice-weekly
San Francisco	64,112	26
Omaha	62,897	100
San Antonio	59,393	72
New York LGA	59,081	83	Outside perimeter rule
Pittsburgh	59,017	93	Spirit coming; three-weekly
Chicago ORD	57,895	10
Sacramento	55,941	100
Columbus	55,283	79
Washington Reagan	52,876	100	Outside perimeter rule
Nashville	52,478	74	Spirit coming; three-weekly
Tampa	50,753	91
Newark	46,539	13
Denver	46,315	14
Philadelphia	44,710	18	Spirit coming; daily
Cleveland	44,426	41	Spirit coming; three-weekly
Hartford	43,486	93
NY JFK	42,248	7
Atlanta	41,630	25
St Louis	41,492	18
Austin	40,880	41	Spirit coming; four-weekly
Raleigh Durham	39,990	56
San Diego	38,654	100	Likely too close to Tijuana
Salt Lake City	37,986	54
Milwaukee	37,308	89
Baltimore	36,606	18
Cincinnati	36,252	50
New Orleans	34,133	79
Buffalo	32,504	100
Des Moines	30,666	100
Orlando	29,762	23
Houston IAH	29,639	11
Phoenix	29,388	42
Oklahoma City	28,485	100
Memphis	26,416	100
Tulsa	25,478	100
San Jose, CA	22,525	100
Dallas Fort Worth	20,986	5
Rochester, NY	20,902	100
Oakland	20,793	100
Spokane	20,381	100
Providence	20,380	100
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser. Note: this doesn’t look at all possible limitations, such as immigration/customs at US airports.