80 unserved routes within Europe with median 25,000 passengers
There are 80 unserved routes within Europe with a minimum of 20,000 connecting passengers before stimulation. These 80 are led by Hamburg – Toulouse, which was served for years by Eurowings/Germanwings. Hamburg – Lyon is 19th, with this previously served by Air France and, in summer 2016, ASL Airlines. In 2016, ASL operated seasonal services to Hamburg from Bordeaux, Lyon, and Marseille. Only Bordeaux remains, operated by easyJet.
There are 80 unserved routes within Europe with a minimum of 20,000 connecting passengers before stimulation. These 80 have a median of 25,000 per route and have 2.3 million passengers in all. Like last week’s look at 95 served routes with at least 50% of passengers connecting en route, these unserved routes have a number to, from, and within Scandinavia. But they’re also more widespread.
These 80 include Gothenburg – Lisbon (25,234; last served in 2016); Amsterdam – Odessa (24,500; unserved in past decade but could be served through Eindhoven); Birmingham – Oslo (23,100, excluding leakage to London/Manchester; last served in 2015 by flybe); Amsterdam – Palermo (22,800; served by Transavia until 2017); and Graz – London (22,500; last served by Ryanair in 2012).
Top-20 unserved routes
Most of the top-20 unserved routes, below, have already been served, necessitating a look at why they failed beyond simply insufficient revenue per passenger in itself or against other opportunities.
| Market | Passengers | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg – Toulouse | 74,980 | Last served by Eurowings in 2018. Has been served most years. |
| Kristiansund – Stavanger | 50,555 | Last served by Wideroe in 2018. Has been served most years. |
| Alesund -Stavanger | 45,906 | Barely served in the past decade. |
| Malmö – Umeå | 39,834 | Unserved in past decade. |
| Larnaca – Paris | 39,156 | Last served by Cobalt in 2018. Up to three-weekly. |
| Frankfurt – Tbilisi | 37,674 | Last ‘properly’ served in 2011 with Lufthansa and Georgian. No service from Kutaisi. |
| Hannover – Malaga | 35,271 | Last served by Norwegian and TUI fly Deutschland in 2018. Served by various airlines over the years, including Vueling and airberlin. |
| Stavanger – Tromsø |
34,322 | Last served by SAS in 2014. |
| Gothenburg – Tallinn | 32,898 | Last served by Nordica in 2018. |
| Bremen – Budapest | 32,373 | Last served by Ryanair in 2009. Nearby Hamburg now has five-weekly services to Budapest. |
| Hannover – Milan | 31,933 | Last served by flybe in 2017 as part of its intra-Europe expansion. |
| Molde – Stavanger | 31,915 | Last served in 2013. |
| Luleå – Malmö | 31,514 | Unserved in past decade. |
| Oslo – St Petersburg | 31,437 | Last served in 2018. Had 40,000 seats by Norwegian in 2014. |
| Gothenburg – Madrid | 31,409 | Last served by Norwegian in 2018. |
| Bergen – Frankfurt | 28,721 | Last served by Lufthansa in 2014. |
| Haugesund – Trondheim | 29,695 | Unserved in past decade. |
| Bodø – Stavanger | 28,031 | Unserved in past decade. |
| Hamburg – Lyon | 26,052 | Last served by ASL in 2016. Before that, by Air France in 2011. |
| Amsterdam – Yerevan | 25,912 | Last served by Armenia Airlines in 2016; before that, by Armavia. |
| Source: OAG Traffic Analyser. Excluding domestic Turkey and countries, such as Ukraine – Russia, that obviously aren’t possible now. | ||
Hamburg – Toulouse #1
Hamburg – Toulouse is the largest unserved route, with 75,000 passengers in the past year and an estimated average fare of USD$122 one-way (excluding taxes). It was last served by Eurowings until March 2018. Eurowings – and before that, Germanwings – operated it for many years. It was always a low-frequency route, at two-to-three-weekly. This route seems an obvious addition for easyJet or Ryanair. easyJet has a base at Toulouse while Ryanair currently has a base at both ends. However, Ryanair is closing its Hamburg base in January 2020, although this doesn’t mean new routes won’t be added. In 2019, Hamburg was connected to five French airports: Paris CDG, Nice, Nantes, Bordeaux, and Bastia.
With no service, Toulouse and Lyon stand out. Likewise Hamburg – Marseille with 24,800 (not quite in the top-20). These were last served by ASL France in summer 2016 on a twice-weekly basis.
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