North America – India has 6.9 million passengers; Canada ~1/4 of market

North America – India has 6.9 million passengers (2)

Air India is by far the leading non-stop operator from India to North America. It began Delhi  – Toronto in September 2019.

Almost 6.9 million people travelled from the US and Canada to India in the year to November 2019, flat year-over-year.  The total market has grown by 830,000 passengers since the year to November 2016.  71% of this growth came from Canada – India, a country-pair three-and-a-half times smaller than US – India.  This is partly from Air Canada more than doubling capacity to India, including launching Vancouver – Delhi in 2018, together with Air India relaunching Toronto in 2019. 

12 months to…* Total (est.) Total US (est.) Total Canada (est.)
Nov-16 6,016,045 5,051,395 964,634
Nov-17 6,398,722 5,197,112 1,201,608
Nov-18 6,849,469 5,396,790 1,452,670
Nov-19 6,845,685 5,291,761 1,553,908
% change* 14% 5% 61%
Absolute change* 829,640 240,366 589,274
CAGR* 3.3% 1.2% 13%
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser. * 12 months to November 2019 in comparison to 12 months to November 2016.

Around 75% flew indirectly, but % falling from more non-stops

OAG Traffic Analyser shows that around seven-and-a-half in ten of the 6.9 million flew indirectly, especially with Emirates (1.2 million), Qatar Airways (729,000), Air India (563,000), Etihad (525,000), and British Airways (408,000).  With almost 2.5 million, the MEB3 have an estimated 36% share of total North America – India traffic.  In 2019, 14 non-stop routes operated, up from eight in 2016.  This year, though, American Airlines will become the fifth non-stop operator when it starts Seattle – Bangalore.  

Canada now up to almost one-quarter of total market

Canada – India now accounts for almost one-quarter of the overall market.  On an airport-pair and city-pair basis, Toronto – Delhi is the largest market. It exceeds number-two, Delhi – New York, by almost 100,000.  Of the top-10 airport-pairs, below, both Bangalore – San Francisco – easily reachable with American’s new Seattle service –  and Los Angeles – Delhi are unserved.  Los Angeles has no non-stop service to India, partly on account of a far lower Indian population versus San Francisco and surrounding cities.

Top-10 markets (airport-pair) Top-10 states/provinces
Route Total passengers (est.)* States/provinces Passengers (est.)*
Delhi – Toronto 428,300 New York 1.3 million
Delhi – Vancouver 307,900 California 1.2 million
Delhi – San Francisco 245,400 Ontario 858,900
Delhi – New York JFK 236,600 Illinois 495,000
Mumbai – Newark 173,200 Texas 487,500
Mumbai – New York JFK 137,600 British Columbia 374,400
Delhi – Los Angeles 130,600 Washington DC 333,000
Bangalore – San Francisco 126,000 Florida 229,300
Mumbai – San Francisco 119,700 Massachusetts 185,100
Mumbai – Toronto 109,300 Georgia 185,000
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser. * Non-stop and indirect combined.

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