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Last year, so before the coronavirus, 2.3 million searches were made for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol to all of Vietnam.  Amsterdam – Ho Chi Minh City had 1.2 million of these, an enormous volume, with 75% originating on the Amsterdam side.  Hanoi was very similar in search volume and origination.

Source: Kiwi.com.

Kiwi.com searches very strongly supported by existing passengers

Amsterdam is by far Vietnam’s largest unserved market in Europe – and it’s fast-growing.  OAG Traffic Analyser, using MIDT data, shows that 108,500 travelled to/from Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi in 2019, up 9% year-on-year.  Ho Chi Minh City had 57,000 of these (+4% YOY) and Hanoi 51,500 (+17%). The Netherlands is Vietnam’s biggest (cumulative) EU investor and Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner among EU countries. Between 2010 and 2015, trade volume between the two quadrupled. 

“For many years we have seen great potential for non-stop or direct service between Vietnam and Amsterdam,” Wilco Sweijen, Schiphol’s Director Route & Business Development, told anna.aero.  “We have seen indirect flows to Vietnam increase yearly. It is no surprise that Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi each year are in our top-10 unserved intercontinental destinations. In fact, they are rising in the ranking of our top-10 white spots. Our annual white spot analysis helps us to identify promising large markets with potential for non-stop or direct service and predicted passenger volumes.”

Wilco Sweijen, Schiphol’s Director Route & Business Development, told anna.aero that, “For many years, we have seen great potential for non-stop or direct service between Vietnam and Amsterdam.”

Amsterdam’s own passenger surveys – so a third data source – supports volume.  “From our passenger surveys at the airport, 152,000 two-way passengers travelled between Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi last year, split almost equally split between the two cities.”

Amsterdam fares higher than most already-served European routes

The average one-way fare for Amsterdam – Ho Chi Minh City is USD$374 (excluding taxes, fuel surcharge (add 20%+ each way), and any ancillaries). This is higher than almost all other European cities with non-stop service, including Moscow SVO ($228), Helsinki ($281), Zurich ($309), Paris CDG ($325) and Frankfurt ($352).  On a per-mile basis, Amsterdam is second-placed, with its result 11% higher than average – despite being above-average for distance.

Note: based on one-way fares, excluding taxes, fuel surcharge (add 20%+ each way; airline keeps this), and any ancillaries. Source: OAG Traffic Analyser using MIDT data.

Strong local demand boosted by connections

Of course, the above numbers relate only to local demand.  They don’t consider connecting passengers, which could be significant.  “If KLM or Vietnam Airlines begin, total passenger numbers would for sure be much higher due to the potential connecting traffic to many European destinations via Amsterdam, as well as connections via Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,” said Sweijen.

Given high Amsterdam origination, perhaps KLM is best placed to start

KLM and Vietnam Airlines are both in SkyTeam, with benefits arising from this. In 2019 (to avoid data impacts from the current virus), KLM had 4.2 million two-way seats to/from Asia.  Northeast Asia saw 2.2 million, with Southeast Asia not far behind with 1.7 million.  KLM serves six destinations in Southeast Asia: Bangkok (daily); Denpasar (daily via Singapore); Jakarta (daily via Kuala Lumpur); Kuala Lumpur (daily); Manila (daily via Taipei); and Singapore (daily). In the present week, all are operated by the 408-seat B777-300ER (KLM’s joint-largest, with strong cargo capacity) or 316-seat B777-200ERs. 

Vietnam Airlines has a sizeable European network and is keen to grow

Vietnam Airlines, meanwhile, had 932,000 seats to Europe last year.  It has service to Frankfurt (daily), London LHR (eight-weekly), Moscow Sheremetyevo (three-weekly; replaced Domodedovo to benefit from Aeroflot’s SkyTeam membership); and Paris CDG (nine-weekly).  Its network strategy is to serve each European airport from both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City; it does this to all but Moscow.  The strength of Amsterdam – Hanoi, similar to Ho Chi Minh City, will be explored separately in another anna.aero Unserved Route of the Week article – powered by Kiwi.com.

Kiwi.com sees more than 100 million searches every day globally, providing access to an incredibly detailed dataset of route data, both for existing routes and those that are unserved or underserved. For more information about how Kiwi.com´s airport data insights product can benefit you, please contact airports@kiwi.com.