American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown + AA’s share fallen

American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown + AA's share fallen

American is to begin, or restart, a raft of routes this coming winter, with most of these from Boston, Miami, and Phoenix. 

With six routes coming, Phoenix has the same number of routes starting as Miami, with its Florida hub to see new low-frequency routes to Dayton, Des Moines, Lexington, Milwaukee, Portland ME, and Rochester.

Miami – Des Moines, for example, had pre-stimulated traffic of 22,000 last year, OAG Traffic Analyser using MIDT booking data indicates. This rises to almost 52,000 if Fort Lauderdale – also unserved from the Iowa airport – is included.

However, American’s Phoenix hub will have the highest number of routes with once-daily frequencies.

Two of American’s six Phoenix routes – Calgary and Cleveland – are resumptions, with both last served in 2016.

Billings is interesting.  Although it has not previously been connected with Phoenix by American, it was last served 14 years ago by America West before it merged with US Airways.

Across all airlines, Phoenix has grown shallowly, with just 2.3 million seats added since 2010. Phoenix was conspicuous by its absence in the top-20 fastest-growing US airports by added capacity.

American’s coming routes

Phoenix to… Start date Weekly frequency P2P traffic* Direct competition (WF)** Indirect competition (WF)**
Billings 4 November 7 16,100 None Allegiant: Mesa (3)
Bismarck 4 November 7 8,600 None Allegiant: Mesa (4)
Calgary 4 November 7 187,000 Air Canada (7); WestJet (21) WestJet: Mesa (2)
Cleveland 7 November 1 266,000 Frontier (4); Southwest (7) None
Nashville 5 November 4 283,000 Southwest (27) None
Tulsa 4 November 7 123,000 Southwest (7) None
Source: airline websites and OAG Traffic Analyser. *Based on 2019 using OAG Traffic Analyser that is based on MIDT booking data.  **Based on the same week that American begins. 

American’s seats at Phoenix flat versus 2010

American’s Phoenix hub had 24.3 million two-way seats last year, OAG schedules data shows.

This makes the Southwest US airport American’s sixth-largest hub, behind Dallas Fort Worth (74.6 million), Charlotte (53.3 million), Chicago O’Hare (35.8 million), Miami (34 million), and Philadelphia (27.3 million).

American’s top-six added almost 32 million seats in 2019 versus 2010, but Phoenix didn’t grow in this period.

In contrast, Dallas added 13.9 million seats, Charlotte 10 million, Chicago 6.1 million, and Miami 3.8 million.

Only Philadelphia’s seats fell, down by nearly two million in this period. However, since 2017 American has once again been growing at the Pennsylvania airport, not something that has happened at Phoenix.

American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown + AA's share fallen

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser. Note: US Airways data has been combined with American’s to give a fuller and fairer picture.

American has 98 Phoenix routes this winter, down just two YOY

Although clearly able to change further, this coming winter American will have 98 routes from Phoenix, down from 100 in W19. 

The eight cut routes for W20, offset by the six additions, were – by order of capacity – Oakland (since removed from American’s entire network), Baltimore, Colorado Springs, Wichita, Rapid City, Chihuahua, Vancouver, and Fort Lauderdale.

Although obviously predictable, OAG shows that Dallas Fort Worth, Chicago O’Hare, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York JFK, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Sacramento will be American’s top-10 routes from Phoenix in W20 by seat capacity.

American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown since 2010 + American's share fallen

American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown + AA’s share fallen

American has high seats per frequency at Phoenix from low RJ use 

As a result of no growth, American’s domination at Phoenix reduced to 45% last year – its lowest in the past decade.

At its height in both 2013 and 2014, it had 51%.

Of American’s top-six hubs, it is not surprising that only Chicago had lower dominance last year – at 35% –given the breadth of airlines there.

This contrasts vividly with American’s top-performing hubs financially, Dallas and Charlotte, with 85% and 90% of seats respectively.

Unlike American’s other hubs, Phoenix had the second-lowest percentage of regional jets last year, with fewer than one-in-five movements by them.  Only Miami had even fewer, at 11%.

Philadelphia’s proportion of RJs was twice as great as Phoenix’s, although curiously its proportion of RJs has fallen the greatest of all hubs.

Phoenix’s seats per frequency was necessarily higher than the others, with 132, second only to Miami with 142. But unlike Phoenix, American’s Florida hub has been reducing in recent years by this measure.

American adds 6 routes from Phoenix; hub not grown + AA's share fallen

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser.


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