Sarajevo aims for two based aircraft; what routes most likely?
Sarajevo in talks with a “successful European airline” for two based aircraft. It is very keen, so whoever it is – probably Wizz Air or Ryanair – would probably get an excellent deal.
Sarajevo’s keenness is from the end of scheduled flights with FlyBosnia, although it was reported in December that the carrier is to lease three A320s – replacing its sole A319. Given the on-going issues between the carrier and airport, its resurgence will be separate to the tender.
Read more: FlyBosnia began Sarajevo to Luton on 24 September 2019. London is now unserved from all of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Sarajevo’s desire for based aircraft is from the fast growth of Wizz Air at Tuzla, located some 119 kilometres away, and to a much lower degree Ryanair at Banja Luka (241 kilometres).
Sarajevo is very underserved, with over half of its traffic flying indirectly in 2019, booking data shows.
Up to 21 routes likely for Sarajevo
Assuming two aircraft and a ULCC, which would make the most sense, it could have 14 to 21 routes, each at three- or twice-weekly.
The markets illustrated below are Sarajevo’s largest unserved and those very underserved. They are based on Sarajevo’s traffic only and exclude leakage to Tuzla and Banja Luka and bus traffic.
The markets had a median P2P demand of 8,000 before stimulation in 2019. Frankfurt is top with 21,000 and London second with 19,000, booking data indicates.
Most are about Bosnian VFR, especially Germany, Switzerland, and Scandinavia.
From Sarajevo, most routes would be within the LCC sweet spot of one to two hours, meaning more sectors per aircraft per day and therefore more passengers and more negotiating ability.